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Retail Risk Index 2021
A landslide in the retail landscape

In the last few years, we saw the odds of a retail outlet closing increase steadily. At the beginning of 2020, the Retail Risk Index reached its highest score in 10 years. What awaits us when retail outlets are allowed to open again? Will it be a battlefield, or will we witness a resilient recovery?

To answer this question, we look at both the past and the future: on the one hand, the hard data on all storefront changes over the past 10 years and, on the other hand, the expected impact of Covid-19 and the economic consequences of the pandemic.

The Retail Risk Index is calculated annually for more than 250,000 stores in the Netherlands and Belgium. The strength of the index lies in the combination of indicators and the depth of the analysis.

The results speak for themselves: in the group of high-risk stores, 60% of the stores stopped operating within 3 years. By comparison, in the group of low-risk stores this was less than 10%.

We have looked at the results of the Retail Risk Index 2021 from five different angles:

  1. How does the Netherlands compare to Belgium?
  2. What are the provincial differences within a country?
  3. What developments do we see for the various types of
    shopping areas?
  4. How vigorous or vulnerable are the various sectors?
  5. What are the characteristics of the survivors?

First findings

The RRI 2021 shows that 18% of all retail outlets in the Netherlands are currently in the danger zone. In Belgium this percentage is slightly higher, at over 20%.

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Retail Risk Index (RRI)

The Retail Risk Index sketches the risk profile of shops and shopping areas in the Netherlands. This information reduces uncertainty about the future of store locations - but what exactly is the RRI based on?

Gerard Zandbergen

Gerard Zandbergen is CEO of Locatus and frequently brainstorms with players on the retail market about the chances for the future. Locatus’ goal is to clarify the retail market, so that her clients have a candid overview of their risks and opportunities. Over 20 years of information forms the basis for this process.